Third Way Perspectives
Posts Tagged ‘populism’
Faith in Math
February 21st, 2012
Nate Silver makes a meticulous mathematical argument that President Obama would be better off gaining downscale whites even if it costs him many upscale white voters (“Why Obama will embrace the 99%”). But for his math to add up, he has to make a giant leap of faith: that populism will win over working class whites. But where’s the compelling evidence for this populist proposition?
In our surveys of this same group of voters, there is certainly anger directed toward Wall Street, Congress, and special interests, yet we keep hearing a much more resonant emotion: anxiety. These and other swing voters are deeply concerned that the country is in decline. They fear that they, and especially their children, may not be able to successfully swim against an ebbing tide of American greatness. They don’t know what America does or makes anymore that represents a solid chance for opportunity and growth for themselves and their communities.
Among arguably the most important swing block of the electorate – those who voted for Obama in 2008 but switched to the Republicans in 2010 – this anxiety about America is palpable. In our 2011 survey we asked them to imagine that the world economy were the Olympics, and only one-third said that America would earn the gold 10 years from now. An equal amount said we would not be on the medal stand at all. Michael Ford, who directs the Center for the Study of the American Dream at Xavier University, found that middle income Americans overwhelmingly believe “the future is being created elsewhere” and that the middle class has lost faith in every major institution in America except the military. A pessimistic populism focused mainly on fairness, income inequality, and anti-corporatism does not speak to, much less answer, these profound anxieties.
Whether he runs as a populist or centrist, President Obama may be reelected no matter the rhetorical framework. As Mr. Silver notes, the economy is improving, bin Laden is dead, and al Qaeda is in tatters. And let’s not discount the fractured primary on the Republican side. But ultimately, an anger-based “people versus the powerful” argument has been tried, time and again, in the modern political era – by Mondale, Gore, Kerry, and Edwards, among many others – and it always comes up short. What voters along the income spectrum want is a leader who eases their anxieties and speaks to their aspirations, not one who echoes their anger. If Nate Silver has persuasive evidence to the contrary, he didn’t include it in his mathematically astute piece.
How the Democrats can stay relevant
November 4th, 2010
This piece was originally published in Politico.
After sweeping to congressional majorities in 2006 and electing a president in 2008 with the largest Democratic percentage of the popular vote since Lyndon B. Johnson, Democrats are now in danger of becoming an irrelevant party.
As American as apple pie
April 20th, 2010
This piece was originally published in Politico.
April really is the cruelest month.
April 19, 1995 — the Oklahoma City bombing. 168 killed.
April 19, 1993 — the Waco siege ends with a catastrophic fire. 76 dead.
April 20, 1999 — the Columbine school shootings. 13 dead.
April 16, 2007 — the Virginia Tech shootings. 32 people murdered.
Polarized Parties Play Parliament
April 16th, 2010
This piece was originally posted in National Journal.
American politics is becoming more parliamentary. British politics is becoming more presidential. Oddly, though, the countries are moving further apart, not closer. In the United States, the major parties are shifting toward greater polarization. In Britain, where an election has been called for May 6, all signs point toward a more centrist government.
The Tea Partiers: Hating Big Brother
April 7th, 2010
This piece was originally posted in National Journal.
What’s driving the ferocious backlash against health care reform?
Some see racism and bigotry. Anti-immigration sentiment is certainly a component of the backlash. The outburst by Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., (“You lie!”) during President Obama’s health care speech in September to a joint session of Congress was triggered by the president’s statement that the legislation would not provide free coverage to illegal immigrants.
High-minded Obama lacks fear factor
February 23rd, 2010
This piece was originally published in Politico.
Why does President Barack Obama strike so many voters as an elitist? Because he is, by style and temperament, an “NPR Democrat.” He’s smart, cool and rational — “All Things Considered.” Conservatives do not consider all things. They consider only what they damn well want to consider. Sarah Palin got off a zinger when she told the tea party convention, “We need a commander in chief, not a professor of law standing at a lectern.”
Ouch.