Third Way Perspectives
Posts Tagged ‘Barack Obama’
Rethinking How We Value Global Trade
February 20th, 2013
This piece was originally published in U.S. News & World Report.
In his most recent State of the Union, President Obama touted the fact that American companies like Apple, Ford, and Intel are bringing manufacturing operations back to the United States. This key trend will support good American jobs—while strengthening the manufacturing and innovation ecosystem that’s a vital source of America’s global competitiveness.
Where things are “made” is crucial. But as America pursues important new trade deals in Asia and Europe, it’s also critical that we secure more “value” from our trade.
The iPhone in my pocket was “made” in China. When it was imported into the United States, it was treated by U.S. Customs as a 100 percent Chinese product, and it added somewhere around $230 to America’s $315 billion trade deficit with China.
Don’t Panic: The NYT Poll is an Outlier
July 19th, 2012
The NYT/CBS poll released today has left many Democrats nervous and pundits wondering if this is the turning of the tide. But neither alarm nor even real interest is warranted: this poll is an outlier and should be viewed with real skepticism.
This kind of thing happens all the time. Polls get weird samples and the results look too strange to be true. Last month, Bloomberg had one showing Obama with a 13-point lead. That was wrong, and this Times poll is almost certainly wrong as well.
Reasons for doubt: Horserace
The NYT/CBS poll has Romney winning the head-to-head by 2 points, within the margin of error. This is unsurprising—no one expects a blowout this year. Real Clear Politics, which takes the average of publicly available media polls and includes this newest survey, finds the race closer than 2 points, but with President Obama winning 46.3% to 44.9%. Read the rest of this entry »
Fact Time: The Hispanic Vote
July 13th, 2012
While Hispanic voters have tended to support Democrats by wide margins in national elections, they are by no means always a sure bet for Democrats. Half of all Hispanic-Americans identify as an Independent. And Independents are not loyal party voters—even if they lean towards one party or the other. Take the example of former President George W. Bush.
In 2000, former Vice President Al Gore won the Hispanic vote by 27 points. But by 2004, President Bush’s support among Hispanics improved, reducing Sen. John Kerry’s margin to 9 points that November. In just 4 years, there was an 18 point swing in Hispanic voting! Democrats rebounded in 2008, with President Obama winning the Hispanic vote by 36 points. In current polls, the President appears ready to extend that margin, up recently by 41 points over Mitt Romney.
While it’s unlikely that Romney will capture a sizeable share of the Hispanic vote—indeed, he’s more likely to suffer former Sen. Bob Dole’s fate (he lost the Hispanic vote by 52 points in 1996)—Hispanic voters may not always support Democrats by wide margins. As President Bush illustrated, this is a group that is open to voting for both parties.
Who’s the Boss?
May 23rd, 2012
This piece was originally posted on The Huffington Post.
Will Mitt Romney or the Republicans in Congress define the Republican message this year? That’s a big problem for the Romney campaign. It’s beginning to look like congressional Republicans want to put Romney in office so he can sign off on the Tea Party agenda–their agenda, not his.
“We’re not a cheerleading squad,” a freshman House Republican told The New York Times. “We’re the conductor. We’re supposed to drive the train.”
No, they’re not. The party’s presidential candidate is supposed to drive the train. He’s the leader. Congressional Republicans are supposed to be the followers. And, yes, the cheerleading squad. If Romney can’t establish pre-eminence over his own party, how can he lead the country? Or the world? Read the rest of this entry »
The Times They Are a-Changin’
March 12th, 2012
“Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside
And it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’…”
-Bob Dylan
The battles of the sixties may finally be over. How do we know? Because 2012 looks like the first election in nearly fifty years in which social issues are working to the advantage of Democrats.
Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States in 2011 provoked a thought. In the 1960s, China experienced the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. They got over it. In the 1960s, the United States experienced the Great American Cultural Revolution. We never got over it.
Until now.
Eight years ago, Bill Clinton offered this defining explanation of American politics: “If you look back on the sixties and, on balance, you think there was more good than harm in it, you’re probably a Democrat. And if you think there’s more harm than good, you’re probably a Republican.”
Is Mitt Romney’s manager cred losing its value?
February 14th, 2012
This piece originally appeared in Politico.
Mitt Romney could end up being the most hapless presidential nominee since Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Romney aims to lead a party whose base is in revolt — against him. Just like liberals were in revolt against Humphrey in 1968.
Antiwar liberals rioted in the streets of Chicago at the 1968 Democratic convention. It’s hard to imagine conservatives rioting in the streets of Tampa at this year’s Republican convention. Street riots are not their style. But Tea Party activists are pretty good at making their feelings known. And their feelings about Romney are not enthusiastic.