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Posts Tagged ‘2012 Election’

Split Election May Fan ‘Red Rage’

October 31st, 2012

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This piece was originally posted on the Huffington Post.

Yes, it could happen. Mitt Romney could win the popular vote while Barack Obama wins the electoral vote—and gets re-elected. It could happen if Romney wins overwhelming popular majorities in the South while Obama ekes out narrow victories in the rest of the country. But the consequences this time would be more serious than they were in 2000, mainly because Republicans would be less likely to accept the result than Democrats were.

In 2000, most Americans accepted the Supreme Court decision for the same reason the Court felt compelled to make it: political necessity. In many countries, the narrow resolution of a disputed election on dubious legal grounds would have brought protesters into the streets, and possibly violence. It is a tribute to the American public’s respect for the Constitution, and for the Supreme Court as the voice of the Constitution, that nothing of the sort happened. Al Gore set the tone when he told the country, “Let there be no doubt: while I strongly disagree with the court’s decision, I accept it.” Read the rest of this entry »

Battle for the Senate: Massachusetts

October 10th, 2012

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Who will moderates pick come November? Tonight is the third of four debates between Massachusetts Senate candidates Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D) and the battle for the Senate in Massachusetts is likely to be close. If Elizabeth Warren can maintain support from 43% or more of Massachusetts’ moderate voters, she will likely win in November. But if Sen. Scott Brown can garner more than half of the moderates, he’ll retain his seat for a full term.

In May we released a report highlighting the importance of moderates in the 2012 Senate Battlegrounds races. Throughout October, we will assess how well the candidates are doing in appealing to this crucial group in the middle. First up, Massachusetts.

Despite being hailed as one of the most liberal states in the nation, Massachusetts is dominated by moderates. Over the past decade, more voters have identified as moderates—ranging from a high of 50% in 2006 to a low of 40% in 2000—than liberals or conservatives.[*] Liberals have never composed the majority of the electorate in Massachusetts; however, compared to most statewide electorates, liberals consistently outnumber conservatives.

Composition of the electorate

  Liberal Moderate Conservative
2000 36% 40% 24%
2004 34% 45% 21%
2006 27% 50% 23%
2008 32% 46% 21%
Average 32.25% 45.25% 22.25%

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Why Todd Akin hurts Mitt Romney

August 27th, 2012

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This piece was originally posted on Politico.

Rep. Todd Akin doesn’t look like he’s going away. And that’s a problem for Mitt Romney, the presumed Republican nominee. Akin’s open defiance makes Romney look like a figurehead.

After Romney joined other Republican Party leaders urging Akin to step down as the Republican Senate candidate in Missouri, Akin told the nominee to mind his own business. “Don’t you think he may have built this thing up and made a bigger deal about it than he needed to?” Akin said on Sean Hannity’s radio show. “Why couldn’t he run his race and I’ll run mine?” Read the rest of this entry »

Arizona by the Numbers – Surging Independent Enrollment

February 27th, 2012

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In the years since the Obama election, Independent enrollment has surged 20% in Arizona while Democratic and Republican enrollment are both down. Arizona technically has a “closed” primary—meaning that only registered Republicans are allowed to vote in the GOP race. But the rules allow voters to switch their enrollment up to 2 days before the balloting. In 2008, 18% of those who voted in the GOP primary called themselves Independents. Whether sizable numbers of Independents will make the switch by Tuesday is unknown, but one thing is clear: come November, Arizona Independents will decide the state.

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It’s STILL the economy, stupid

May 9th, 2011

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This piece was originally posted on The Huffington Post.

The contrast could not be sharper. There was President Obama, basking in the victory glow of the raid that took out Osama bin Laden. And there were five hapless Republican presidential candidates trying desperately to get noticed at the first debate of the 2012 campaign in South Carolina. The winner, according to a focus group conducted for Fox News, which sponsored the debate: Herman Cain. Who? Exactly.

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