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Entitlement reform key to U.S. future

February 27th, 2013

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This piece was originally published in Politico.

As the sequester blame game hits fever pitch this week, Republicans’ stance on taxes is simply indefensible, falling hundreds of billions short of even their own prior positions. But as Democrats, we also share a large portion of responsibility for the coming cuts to domestic discretionary spending, as the party has decided in both action and rhetoric that meaningful fixes to the major entitlement programs of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are off-limits.

Think about it. Over the past three years, from debt ceiling deals to the supercommittee and the fiscal cliff, social insurance programs have escaped virtually unscathed while every other category of spending took some hit and revenue grew. And because of the sheer enormousness of the Big 3 entitlements, Democrats face a serious new crisis that is closer to home and will linger long past the sequester: There is now barely a farthing left in the budget for any new investments.

Over the past century, Democrats can boast two major economic legacies. The first is the safety net programs of the New Deal and the Great Society — successful programs that lifted the elderly and vulnerable out of poverty. The second is the New Frontier investment programs defined and expanded under President John F. Kennedy. These investments in science, space, defense, education, as well as highways, rails, ports and medical breakthroughs helped power the U.S. economy during the latter half of the 20th century.

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Perfect could be enemy of the good on immigration

January 31st, 2013

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This piece was originally published in The Hill.

The phone rings in the house of an undocumented immigrant who has lived here for decades. The person on the line offers her a deal. If she registers with the US government, goes through a criminal background check, and pays a fine, she will be forever allowed to work, travel, and conduct her affairs in America without fear of deportation. For her children, even better — they will be given a fast-track path to citizenship. And down the line, once more is done to secure the border, she can get in the back of the line and eventually earn her citizenship as well.
 
Is there any chance she would say no?

On Monday, a bipartisan group of 8 Senators released an immigration reform proposal that would offer exactly that scenario to undocumented immigrants. Yet many reform advocates reacted warily to the plan, and even the Administration offered a few pointed criticisms in its otherwise favorable statement. In particular, they argued that using a “trigger” of border security to determine when some immigrants can move from a provisional legal status to a permanent one with a path to citizenship is unacceptable.

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Progressives should support a ‘grand bargain’

October 26th, 2012

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This piece was originally featured in Politico.

This week, some of the most vocal progressive organizations planted a flag in the ground in opposition to a grand bargain budget agreement in the lame duck Congress. Led by AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka, who Tuesday wrote an op-ed in POLITICO, “Americans don’t want ‘grand bargain,’” these groups made a particular point in opposing any fixes to Social Security and Medicare. If too many progressives follow suit, this could not only damage our economy but also hurt the middle class and put retirement entitlements in ultimate danger.

For nearly a century, progressives have fought to construct a secure and comprehensive safety net. With the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, that mission is essentially complete. Now our challenge is to maintain the safety net as we approach the most consequential demographic aging in the nation’s history. Any responsible approach to fixing the safety net must necessarily include a balance of measures that make the programs healthy and solvent — new revenue, modest reductions in benefits to some recipients and a commitment to working class people that we will not raise payroll taxes on them in the future. We also believe the time to make these changes is now, for the following reasons: Read the rest of this entry »

Mr. Krugman: Obama Should Just Say Yes

October 3rd, 2012

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This piece was originally posted on the Huffington Post.

Paul Krugman is one of America’s intellectual treasures, but he is stunningly off when it comes to the deficit. He argues that if re-elected, Obama should “just say no” to all efforts to seek a major budget deal. In so doing, he belittles Bowles, Simpson and others who warn about a looming and potentially crippling fiscal crisis. He’s not the only deficit denier, but Mr. Krugman is so respected by the left wing of the Democratic Party that his arguments could prove quite problematic.

His recent column opens with perhaps the most dangerous and short-sighted argument, namely that our historically low U.S. treasury rates prove that “we are not facing any kind of fiscal crisis.” But our rates are not at historic lows because of our chronic deficits, rather in spite of them. We are (in the eyes of those seeking to purchase the safest debt possible) the cleanest port-o-potty at the county fair thanks to the awful state of much of the rest of the world’s beleaguered economies. Read the rest of this entry »

Hmm? Entitlements aren’t crowding out investments??

August 3rd, 2012

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Dylan Matthews posted on our paper this afternoon, and we appreciate the opportunity to continue the dialogue. So let’s get started.

Should Social Security be left out of this discussion, as Mr. Matthews suggests? Is it really only the health care entitlements we need to contain?

He is correct, and we showed in our paper, that over the past 50 years, all of Social Security’s growth relative to GDP has occurred in the first 20 years and has stayed roughly static since. But five percent of the economy is a lot. It’s roughly equal to Medicare, Medicaid and CHIP combined. And it’s not going to stay static – that is a certainly. In less than two decades, Social Security is poised to jump from 5.0% to 6.0% of GDP, according to CBO. One point may not seem like a big deal, but it represents a 20% rise in the cost of Social Security relative to the size of the economy. That’s not peanuts, especially since (as Mr. Matthews rightly points out and we also show in our paper) our health care entitlements will sprint ahead much faster. Read the rest of this entry »

5 Lessons from Boy and Girl Geniuses

June 26th, 2012

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This month, American students received another dismal grade as one-third of eighth graders failed to score a basic knowledge of science in the National Assessment of Educational Performance exam. The President and business leaders across the country have warned that America risks forfeiting its historic economic edge in technology and innovation unless we improve science knowledge among students.

But with policymakers wringing their hands over America falling behind, perhaps there are lessons Washington can learn from the boy and girl geniuses who met this spring to be honored by the Society for Science and the Public. These 40 American high school seniors won the right to compete for scholarships in the National Science Talent Search sponsored by Intel. In a blind application, nearly 2,000 contestants submitted original research to a panel of experts who narrowed the field down to 40 finalists that came to the National Geographic Society for an intensive review of their work.

The quality of the scholarship is breathtaking. One 17-year old developed a new method to detect buried landmines. Another created a photosensitizer to kill cancer cells without toxic radiation. An 18-year old submitted a novel prototype to remove nanoparticle contaminants from water. These 40 young minds could possibly reshape our economy, health, and environment for decades to come. But what can they teach Washington?

First, immigration is imperative. A stunning 13 of the forty finalists were not born in America – an incomprehensible ratio given that the overwhelming majority of American school kids were born here. Winners came from Honduras, China, Russia, India, Japan, Korea, and elsewhere. In the 20th century, 54 million people immigrated to the United States and helped America win two world wars, a cold war, and build a middle class that remains the envy of the world. Yet in this century, we are still mired in a debate over the benefits of immigration. These kids make clear that the U.S. must remain a global magnet for talent.

Second, Barbie blew it. Sixteen of 40 finalists are girls. While that is not quite half, it is up significantly from the nine who were winners 20 years ago. The belief that girl brains may not be cut out for math – perpetuated by Talking Barbie (“Math is hard!”) and foot-in-mouth former Harvard President Larry Summers – could not be more wrong. In education, girls are now out-sprinting boys, comprising 60% of new college graduates, as well as significantly more advanced degrees. It seems likely that in the near future, girls will surpass boys in math and science, and if encouraged, will be the principal contributor to American ingenuity. Maybe GI Joe should encourage boys to attend academic boot camp in order to catch up.

Third, culture counts. Twenty-six finalists are Asian. Based on their relative size within the student population, only two of the finalists should have been Asian. No one says that American schools aren’t good enough to create the best lawyers in the world, so maybe America’s lack of success in the science, tech, and math fields has to do with the expectations and desires of parents. Many successful families push their high-achieving kids into fields like law, business, and finance. Perhaps there is even some snobbery directed toward those who wear lab coats; toil before a computer; or engineer, calculate, and splice things. In high-achieving Asian families, parents seem to be encouraging their children’s fascination with science and numbers rather than redirecting it to other fields.

Fourth, music matters. Twenty-two were stand-out musicians; playing in orchestras, composing their own music, even winning awards. In our hyper-ventilating testing atmosphere, softer skills like music, art, and physical education are on the chopping block in times of tight budgets. But studies show that these softer skills complement and enhance core competencies in math, reading, analytics, and comprehension. They teach people to work in teams and overcome obstacles to achieve success. Cutting off programs that don’t directly relate to standardized testing may ultimately lower test scores.

Fifth, public schools can produce. Thirty-six attended public schools. There is no doubt that our public educational system needs improvement. Some lower income schools are dropout factories; many middle income schools turn out mediocrity. But there is also tremendous success coming out of many public schools. What are these winner schools doing to motivate students, involve parents, unleash the best in teachers, and create a culture of learning and achievement? Can it be replicated in schools across the country, income spectrum, and across cultural and racial differences?

These forty winners are the future of America. One may produce a breakthrough that ends our reliance on fossil fuels. Another may find a cure for Alzheimer’s. The sky is the limit. But in the meantime, there are lessons we can take from them today to improve education for the 50 million kids in school now.

Jim Kessler is the Senior Vice President for Policy at Third Way, a moderate think tank in Washington, D.C.